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␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓βS␈↓∧ Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, STANFORD UNIVERSITY, Stanford, California 94305
␈↓ ↓H␈↓∧Telephone 415 497-4430␈↓ 	pJanuary 25, 1977




␈↓ ↓H␈↓Dr. Ed Zebroski
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Electric Power Research Institute 3412 Hillview Ave.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓P.O. Box 10412
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Palo Alto, CA 94304

␈↓ ↓H␈↓Dear Ed:

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        I liked your article ␈↓↓Turning around ...␈↓, and have the following comments:

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        1.␈αThere␈αare␈αstill␈αmany␈αmisprints,␈αthough␈αI␈αdidn't␈αsee␈αany␈αthat␈αleave␈αthe␈αmeaning␈αdoubtful.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓You need a computer editing system.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        2.␈α∂The␈α∂argument␈α∂that␈α∂ unilaterally␈α∂restricting␈α∂export␈α∂of␈α∂nuclear␈α∂technology␈α∂won't␈α∞prevent
␈↓ ↓H␈↓proliferation␈αis␈αmuch␈αstronger␈αthan␈αthe␈αargument␈αthat␈αthe␈αpresent␈αpolicy␈αencourages␈αproliferation.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓It seems to me that the present policy is rather neutral in that respect.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        3.␈αIt␈αseems␈αto␈αme␈αthat␈αthere␈αare␈αtwo␈αreasons␈αwhy␈αa␈αcountry␈αmight␈αdevelop␈αnuclear␈αweapons.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓The␈α
≡rst␈α
is␈α
ego␈α
or␈α
technical␈α
inertia.␈α
 It␈αcan␈α
be␈α
much␈α
in∨uenced␈α
by␈α
externals␈α
such␈α
as␈αpublic␈α
opinion
␈↓ ↓H␈↓in␈α∞the␈α∞country␈α∂and␈α∞in␈α∞the␈α∞world␈α∂generally,␈α∞by␈α∞the␈α∞self-image␈α∂of␈α∞the␈α∞country's␈α∞military␈α∂men␈α∞and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓their␈α∂relation␈α∂to␈α∞the␈α∂political␈α∂leaders,␈α∂and␈α∞can␈α∂be␈α∂in∨uenced␈α∂by␈α∞external␈α∂bribes␈α∂and␈α∂threats.␈α∞ It
␈↓ ↓H␈↓seems␈αto␈αme␈αthat␈αmost␈αof␈αthe␈αthinking␈αabout␈αnon-proliferation␈αhas␈αbeen␈αdirected␈αtoward␈αcountries
␈↓ ↓H␈↓that might have that kind of motivation.  The considerations in your article are also so directed.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        The␈αsecond␈αmotivation␈αis␈αthat␈αthe␈αcountry's␈αleaders␈αhave␈αa␈αgoal␈αthat␈αrequires␈αthe␈αposession
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of␈α∞nuclear␈α∞weapons.␈α∞ This␈α
goal␈α∞may␈α∞be␈α∞defensive,␈α∞and␈α
the␈α∞known␈α∞probable␈α∞cases␈α∞are␈α
defensive.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Thus␈αIsrael,␈αSouth␈αAfrica,␈αTaiwan␈αand␈αSouth␈αKorea␈αmay␈αall␈αfeel␈αthat␈αtheir␈αsurvival␈αmay␈αdepend
␈↓ ↓H␈↓on␈αtheir␈αability␈αto␈αdeter␈αpotential␈αenemies␈αwith␈αnuclear␈αweapons.␈α As␈αyour␈αarticle␈αmakes␈αclear,␈αany
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of␈α
these␈αcountries␈α
can␈α
acquire␈αthe␈α
weapons␈α
in␈αa␈α
quantity␈α
su≠cient␈αto␈α
worry␈α
their␈αpotential␈α
enemies
␈↓ ↓H␈↓regardless␈α∩of␈α∩what␈α∩we␈α∩do␈α∩short␈α∩of␈α∩military␈α∩occupation␈α∩of␈α∩the␈α∩country.␈α∩ The␈α∩only␈α∩chance␈α∩of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓preventing␈αthem␈αfrom␈αacquiring␈αthe␈αweapons␈αis␈αto␈αchange␈αtheir␈αsecurity␈αsituation.␈α (There␈αis␈αalso
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈αpossibility␈αthat␈αin␈αone␈αor␈αmore␈αof␈α
these␈αcountries,␈αthere␈αis␈αno-one␈αin␈αpower␈αcapable␈αof␈α
pushing
␈↓ ↓H␈↓such␈α∞a␈α∞project␈α∞past␈α∞the␈α∞other␈α∞claimants␈α∞for␈α∞resources).␈α∞ In␈α∞my␈α∞opinion,␈α∞the␈α∞posession␈α∞of␈α∞nuclear
␈↓ ↓H␈↓weapons␈α⊂by␈α⊂a␈α⊃country␈α⊂whose␈α⊂purposes␈α⊃are␈α⊂clearly␈α⊂defensive␈α⊂and␈α⊃which␈α⊂has␈α⊂a␈α⊃mechanism␈α⊂for
␈↓ ↓H␈↓orderly␈αtransfer␈αof␈αinternal␈αpower␈αis␈αnot␈αespecially␈αdangerous␈αto␈αthe␈αworld,␈αespecially␈αif␈αthey␈αkeep
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈αfact␈α
secret.␈α Even␈αthe␈α
not␈αvery␈αcredible␈α
Israeli␈αdenials␈α
of␈αhaving␈αnuclear␈α
weapons␈αare␈αuseful␈α
in
␈↓ ↓H␈↓preventing␈α∂others␈α∞from␈α∂acquiring␈α∞the␈α∂weapons␈α∞for␈α∂egotistical␈α∞reasons.␈α∂ The␈α∂world␈α∞psychological
␈↓ ↓H␈↓situation␈αwould␈αbe␈αrather␈αdi≥erent␈αif␈αthey␈αopenly␈αadmitted␈αhaving␈αthe␈αweappons.␈α (If␈α
the␈αIsraelis
␈↓ ↓H␈↓felt␈α
they␈α
needed␈αa␈α
test,␈α
it␈αwould␈α
be␈α
worth␈αour␈α
while␈α
to␈α
let␈αthem␈α
carry␈α
out␈αthe␈α
test␈α
in␈αNevada␈α
rather
␈↓ ↓H␈↓than let it be public that they had them).

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        The␈αreally␈αdangerous␈αpossibility␈αis␈αthat␈αsome␈αcountry␈αacquire␈αnuclear␈αweapons␈αfor␈αo≥ensive
␈↓ ↓H␈↓purposes.␈α
 It␈αseems␈α
to␈αme␈α
that␈αthis␈α
is␈αa␈α
real␈αdanger.␈α
 World␈αWar␈α
II␈αleft␈α
nations␈αfearful␈α
of␈αmajor
␈↓ ↓H␈↓αDr. Ed Zebroski␈↓ ¬[January 25, 1977␈↓ 
nPage 2␈↓ 

␈↓ ↓H␈↓war,␈αbut␈αas␈αthe␈α
people␈αwith␈αexperience␈αof␈αwar␈α
get␈αold,␈αthis␈αfear␈αis␈α
wearing␈αthin.␈α There␈αis␈α
also␈αa
␈↓ ↓H␈↓spread␈α
of␈α
victory-or-death␈αideologies.␈α
 For␈α
example,␈α
world␈αliberal␈α
public␈α
opinion␈α
would␈αsupport␈α
an
␈↓ ↓H␈↓o≥ensive␈α∞war␈α∞to␈α∞wipe␈α∞out␈α∞white␈α∞rule␈α
in␈α∞South␈α∞Africa,␈α∞and␈α∞many␈α∞American␈α∞liberals␈α∞are␈α
actively
␈↓ ↓H␈↓promoting␈α
such␈α
a␈α
war.␈α
 The␈α
black␈α
Africans␈αstill␈α
feel␈α
rather␈α
tentative␈α
about␈α
it,␈α
but␈α
the␈αpossibility␈α
of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓a␈α
victory-or-death␈α
movement␈αthat␈α
would␈α
counter␈α
South␈αAfrican␈α
posession␈α
of␈α
nuclear␈αweapons␈α
with
␈↓ ↓H␈↓its␈αown␈αand␈αwould␈αeven␈αstart␈αa␈αwar␈αknowing␈αthat␈αit␈αwould␈αbe␈αnuclear␈αcannot␈αbe␈αexcluded␈αin␈αthe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓next twenty years.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Liberal␈α∩public␈α∩opinion␈α⊃in␈α∩the␈α∩U.S.␈α⊃is␈α∩simply␈α∩blind␈α⊃to␈α∩this␈α∩possibility␈α⊃at␈α∩present.␈α∩ It␈α⊃is
␈↓ ↓H␈↓supporting␈α∪objectives␈α∀that␈α∪may␈α∀not␈α∪be␈α∪achievable␈α∀without␈α∪nuclear␈α∀war␈α∪and␈α∀helping␈α∪arouse
␈↓ ↓H␈↓expectations␈αand␈αpassions␈αthat␈αmay␈αmake␈αsuch␈αa␈αwar␈αlikely.␈α The␈αmost␈αimportant␈α
contribution␈αto
␈↓ ↓H␈↓world␈αpeace␈αis␈α
to␈αmake␈αthis␈αmovement␈α
realize␈αthat␈αthe␈αpresence␈α
of␈αnuclear␈αweapons␈αin␈α
the␈αworld
␈↓ ↓H␈↓means thay they too must exclude war as a means of achieving their objectives.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        I␈α∞doubt␈α
that␈α∞many␈α
of␈α∞these␈α∞considerations␈α
are␈α∞appropriate␈α
for␈α∞your␈α
paper,␈α∞but␈α∞perhaps␈α
it
␈↓ ↓H␈↓should␈αat␈αleast␈αmention␈α
that␈αcountries␈αthat␈αhave␈α
reason␈αto␈αbelieve␈αtheir␈α
survival␈αmay␈αdepend␈αon␈α
a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓nuclear␈α∞deterrent␈α∞can␈α∂be␈α∞prevented␈α∞from␈α∂acquiring␈α∞the␈α∞weapons␈α∂only␈α∞by␈α∞credible␈α∂guarantees␈α∞of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓their security.


␈↓ ↓H␈↓Sincerely,



␈↓ ↓H␈↓John McCarthy
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Director
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Professor of Computer Science